As we begin 2024, it's important to consider the potential trends that may shape the art market this year.
Here are some key points to keep in mind:
- According to the last Art & Finance Report by ArtTactic and Deloitte, 59% of art market experts surveyed believe that the market will remain flat and stable over the next 12 months.
- Despite this caution, with collectors being very careful and selective in their acquisitions, the art market is showing resilience. This is contributing to the idea of art as a store of value, even in uncertain times, as noted by Anders Petterson, Managing Director of ArtTactic.
- Petterson also predicts that the lower-end of the market (which saw a growth of 18% in 2023) will remain very active, with more buying activity in the region under $50,000.
- Major auction houses are expected to provide more realistic pre-sale estimates and reserve prices.
- The Asian art market is expected to continue to grow, with the rise of a new and young generation of art collectors and entrepreneurs, the consolidation of major contemporary art fairs in the region, such as Frieze Seoul, and "the resurgence of Japan as a global art worldspot" (Marc Glimcher, President of Pace Gallery).
- A new VAT regulation could have a positive impact on the circulation of art within Europe. France recently approved maintaining the VAT rate at 5.5% for initial sales and imports of works of art from outside the European Union.
- Stakeholders in the art industry will be increasingly focusing on transparency, research, authenticity, and exceptional provenance of artworks.
Other factors that may impact the art market include changing political and economic conditions, evolving tastes among collectors, and fluctuations in supply and demand for certain artists or styles.
For instance, although figurative painting has been quite popular in recent years, the demand for abstract art is expected to increase again in the near future.
In addition, it's worth noting that oversupply of works on the market can also lead to an overwhelming situation with a drop in sales: in the last months of 2023, the market for an artist like Alighiero Boetti, who was so far very popular and requested worldwide, experienced saturation and stagnation.
Keeping these trends in mind can help art buyers and sellers to make informed decisions.